Global markets have been marked by renewed geopolitical and policy uncertainty in late 2025. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have flared up with both sides imposing new tariffs and restrictions. In the U.S., policymakers are now preparing to cut interest rates, citing a softening labour market. In this volatile environment, Indian markets have held up well. India’s GDP grew an impressive 6.5% in FY2024 - 25 (with Q4 up 7.4% YoY). Crucially, inflation has eased sharply (to just 2.1% in June 2025), its lowest level in six years, giving the RBI room to cut policy rates aggressively. Deloitte expects India’s growth to remain robust (around 6.4 - 6.7% in FY2025 - 26) on the back of resilient consumption and investment. Additionally, the IMF has raised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.6% due to a strong Q1 performance (7.8% - highest in five quarters) that offset U.S. tariffs. This supports our conviction that India’s structural themes (stable macro fundamentals, urbanization, and domestic manufacturing) can drive continued performance even as global headwinds persist.

A Strategy Rooted in Macro Themes: Ritesh Jain’s fund selection process is guided by long-term shifts in the global and Indian economy. Key themes include:

• Rising nominal GDP: India’s large, young population and reform momentum suggest strong future growth.

• Import substitution (“Atmanirbhar Bharat”): Shifts toward domestic manufacturing (in sectors like electronics and alternate energy) create alpha opportunities.

• Manufacturing capex: India is seeing green shoots in private investment, particularly in capital goods and infrastructure.

• Electronics & renewables boom: The government’s push for digital and clean-energy projects favors funds with exposure to these industries.

Unlike conventional funds tilted toward services, our portfolios emphasize India’s manufacturing and infrastructure renaissance. NRIZEN offers two separate equity baskets: one for NRIs based in the US/Canada, and another for NRIs in the rest of the world. These portfolios have held up through 2025’s swings, reflecting our thematic biases.

Portfolio Performance

The NRIZEN Curated Fund Baskets continued to deliver resilient results through varying market conditions. The US/Canada Basket generated a 19.3% cumulative return, supported by strong gains in early 2024 and a solid rebound in mid-2025 despite interim volatility. The Non-American Basket outperformed with a 22.7% cumulative return. Meanwhile, the Nifty 500 TRI delivered 19.8% over the same period, reflecting steady domestic market performance.

Risk and Volatility Metrics

Our portfolios’ risk-adjusted returns have shifted as volatility has risen in 2025. The table below compares the standard deviation and Sharpe ratios of each basket versus the Nifty 500 TRI:

Higher volatility in 2025 (vs. 2024) reflects the market gyrations this year.

In 2024, both curated baskets delivered strong risk-adjusted returns, with Sharpe ratios of 1.2 (US) and 1.1 (Non-US), well above the benchmark’s 0.8. This reflected strong performance with moderate volatility during a broadly favourable equity cycle.

However, in 2025, market volatility surged across the board due to global uncertainties, including shifting rate expectations and geopolitical tensions. As a result, Sharpe ratios turned negative for all portfolios: -0.4 for the US basket and -0.2 each for the Non-US basket and the Nifty 500 TRI. These negative Sharpe ratios indicate that returns have not kept up with the rise in volatility this year.

Still, despite short-term setbacks, both curated baskets-maintained volatility levels in line with the benchmark while being better positioned for long-term alpha due to their thematic tilt toward manufacturing, infrastructure, and resilient mid-cap holdings.

Outlook: Long-Term Confidence Amid Short-Term Noise

Looking ahead, we expect short - term noise to persist as global uncertainties evolve. That said, India’s economic story is intact. Strong domestic demand, infrastructure spending and fiscal support should continue to underwrite corporate growth. India’s economic fundamentals remain among the strongest globally. Our investment approach is unchanged: we stick to high-conviction themes that we believe will play out over the next 5 -10 years. These include manufacturing and technology (leveraging India’s capex cycle), domestic consumption (as living standards rise), and financial services (which benefit from credit growth and financialization of savings).

In sum, while markets may swing on external shocks, India’s macro tailwinds remain powerful - falling inflation, large fiscal stimuli, and reforms will likely support equity returns. We remain optimistic about our curated baskets’ positioning in this cycle.

Whether you're an NRI, OCI holder, or even a resident Indian investor looking for macro-aligned opportunities, you can explore and invest in these top-performing portfolios through NRIZEN.com.